Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hayes hit sacrifice fly to left, Williams scored, Reynolds to second, Bae to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Reynolds grounded out to second, Andujar scored, Bae to second, Williams to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Andujar singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Palacios to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Vargas singled to left, Ruiz scored, Meneses to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Palacios homered to center (410 feet), Rodríguez scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -110
- WSH +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.9 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 34–3823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.