Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiermaier scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Volpe.7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 9Kirk homered to left center (394 feet), Chapman scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 34–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Bichette homered to right center (390 feet), Springer scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Biggio singled to center, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Torres doubled to center, Judge scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Springer homered to right (338 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Fair odds
- NYY -105
- TOR +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3042–33 | Road vs home | 39–3615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.