Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman tripled to right, Biggio scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Devers homered to left (380 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Reyes singled to left, Refsnyder scored, Devers to second.1–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Varsho homered to right (392 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Kiermaier hit sacrifice fly to left, Biggio scored, Chapman to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −16 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +14 Elo | TOR 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 40–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 7–5 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.