New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Miguel AndujarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Delay doubled to left, Triolo scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Volpe homered to center (417 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6LeMahieu doubled to left, Florial scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Andujar homered to right (370 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Peguero singled to center, Triolo scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -103
- NYY +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Colin Selby: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 37–4021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–0 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.