New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cabrera homered to right (364 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6Judge scored on Stratton wild pitch, Torres to third.5–3
- 6Judge scored on Stratton wild pitch, Torres to third on wild pitch by Stratton.5–3
- 3Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to right, Hayes scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Stanton homered to left center (418 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 1Reynolds homered to center (416 feet), Bae scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Florial singled to right, Torres scored and Wells scored, Stanton to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Wells doubled to center, LeMahieu scored, Torres to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- NYY +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | NYY: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +2 Elo | NYY 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 37–3921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.