Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bichette scored, Chapman safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Torres, Eden to second.3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 9Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kiermaier scored, Biggio out at second, Bichette to third.2–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 8Chapman scored on Cole wild pitch.1–5
- 8Chapman scored on Cole wild pitch.1–5
- 7Judge doubled to left, LeMahieu scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Florial doubled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Bauers homered to right (408 feet), LeMahieu scored and Torres scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 47%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +9 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 5th of 3044–33 | Road vs home | 39–3818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 5–4 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.