Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-4
- Jordan WicksPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peterson doubled to left, Thomas scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Marte homered to right center (383 feet), Lawlar scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Bellinger grounded into double play, second to first, Happ scored, Morel out at second, Hoerner to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–3
- 2Tauchman singled to center, Swanson scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Rivera hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Pham scored, Walker to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Walker hit into fielder's choice to center, Marte scored, Pham to second, Carroll out at third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- CHC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 40–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–5 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.