Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gomes singled to center, Swanson scored and Happ scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Doyle singled to left, Montero scored and Goodman scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Goodman doubled to left, Díaz scored, Montero to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Gomes singled to left, Bellinger scored, Suzuki thrown out at home.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Morel homered to center (466 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Madrigal singled to right, Gomes scored, Wisdom to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Jones grounded out to first, Blackmon scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Fair odds
- CHC -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.3 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +77 Elo | CHC 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 11th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 29–3825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.