Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Seby ZavalaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Peterson scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Swanson singled to left, Hoerner scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Zavala singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Rivera to second.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Swanson homered to left center (414 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Bellinger homered to right center (373 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Morel homered to left (383 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Suzuki hit a ground rule double, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +39 Elo | CHC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 40–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–0 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.