Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bellinger singled to right, Tauchman scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 10Pham singled to left, Lawlar scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 10Moreno scored on Palencia wild pitch, Lawlar to third on wild pitch by Palencia.2–1
- 10Moreno scored on Palencia wild pitch, Lawlar to third on wild pitch by Palencia.2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Moreno grounded out to third, Carroll scored, Rivera to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Bellinger reached on infield single to second, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -115
- ARI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +13 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +42 Elo | CHC 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 40–3312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.