San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-3
- Logan WebbPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bellinger scored, Swanson out at third.0–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Swanson doubled to left, Tauchman scored, Bellinger to third.0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Gomes singled to center, Suzuki scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 7Suzuki doubled to center, Bellinger scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Suzuki homered to center (432 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Fair odds
- CHC -117
- SF +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 5.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +55 Elo | CHC 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 37–3112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–2 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.