Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson singled to left, Marte scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Happ homered to right (373 feet), Tauchman scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Suzuki homered to center (408 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Bellinger singled to right, Hoerner scored and Happ scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Marte singled to center, Senzel scored, Stephenson to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Bellinger homered to right center (404 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -108
- CHC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 31–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 4–5 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.