Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lyon RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to center, Fairchild scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Martini homered to right center (418 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Friedl doubled to right, Fraley scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Bellinger homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -106
- CHC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | CHC: Jose Cuas: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Lyon Richardson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +7 Elo | CHC 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 31–3523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.