Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ doubled to right, Hoerner scored and Tauchman scored.15–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–7
- 9Candelario homered to right center (410 feet).13–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 212–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–7
- 8Marte doubled to center, Steer scored and Benson scored, Stephenson to third.12–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–5
- 8Swanson doubled to right, Happ scored and Tauchman scored.12–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 210–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–5
- 8Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Mastrobuoni scored, Tauchman to third.10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 8Tauchman singled to right, Candelario scored and Madrigal scored, Mastrobuoni to third.9–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Madrigal singled to center, Suzuki scored and Swanson scored, Candelario to second.7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Happ singled to left, Hoerner scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Stephenson singled to left, Encarnacion-Strand scored.4–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- CHC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +7 Elo | CHC 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 33–3522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 5–7 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.