San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Flores homered to left (367 feet).8–11
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–11
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–11
- 8Suzuki singled to center, Swanson scored.7–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–10
- 8Crawford singled to center, Davis scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 7Morel homered to center (431 feet), Gomes scored and Madrigal scored.6–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 7Madrigal grounded into fielder's choice to third, Candelario scored, Madrigal second, Gomes safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Schmitt.6–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 7Suzuki homered to left (408 feet), Swanson scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Davis homered to center (401 feet), Pederson scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Fair odds
- CHC -120
- SF +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +7 | SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +68 Elo | CHC 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 38–3111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–3 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.