Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left (376 feet).5–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–11
- 6Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Pham scored, Thomas to second, Walker to third.5–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–10
- 5Perdomo singled to center, Herrera scored.5–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 4Thomas singled to left, Carroll scored and Marte scored, Pham to second.5–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 4Pham walked, Perdomo scored, Marte to second, Carroll to third.5–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 45–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 3Thomas homered to right (395 feet), Pham scored and Walker scored.5–6
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Pham doubled to center, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Doyle singled to left, Montero scored, Goodman to second.5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -131
- COL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.6 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −23 | COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +74 Elo | ARI 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–49 | Road vs home | 37–3517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–9 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.