Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4
- Brandon PfaadtPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Blackmon hit sacrifice fly to center, Doyle scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Jones walked, Tovar scored on throwing error by catcher Moreno.2–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 42–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Rivera singled to right, Marte scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Jones doubled to right, Blackmon scored, Díaz to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Fair odds
- ARI -132
- COL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.8 – 5.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +74 Elo | ARI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3021–49 | Road vs home | 37–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–9 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.