San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bellinger homered to right (375 feet).2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Bart hit sacrifice fly to center, Schmitt scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Schmitt doubled to center, Matos scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Morel singled to left, Tauchman scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 4Amaya homered to left center (400 feet).0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Madrigal singled to center, Bellinger scored, Swanson to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Bellinger doubled to right, Happ scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Suzuki doubled to right, Hoerner scored, Swanson scored and Happ scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.9 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +59 Elo | CHC 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 39–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–4 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.