Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Javier AssadPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bellinger to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Marte singled to right, Carroll scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pham homered to right center (391 feet), Marte scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Candelario hit sacrifice fly to right, Suzuki scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Marte homered to center (413 feet), Perdomo scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pham homered to right center (410 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Fair odds
- CHC -121
- ARI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.2 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +8 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +79 Elo | CHC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 40–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.