Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elehuris MonteroBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Montero hit sacrifice fly to left, Díaz scored.1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Davis singled to right, Flores scored, Pederson to third.0–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 6Pederson singled to center, Yastrzemski scored, Flores to second.0–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Yastrzemski doubled to right, Crawford scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Estrada hit into fielder's choice to center, Matos scored, Yastrzemski out at second.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Yastrzemski singled to right, Bart scored, Matos to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Matos singled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Bart to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Davis scored on Anderson wild pitch, Wade Jr. to second.0–3
- 4Davis scored on Anderson wild pitch, Wade Jr. to second on wild pitch by Anderson.0–3
- 1Estrada homered to left (386 feet), Yastrzemski scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 64%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | +2 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +103 Elo | SF 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–51 | Road vs home | 39–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–6 SF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.