Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elehuris MonteroBatting3-4
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pederson homered to right (342 feet).3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Haniger homered to left center (387 feet), Wade Jr. scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Estrada homered to center (412 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Matos singled to center, Haniger scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Crawford grounded out to second, Wade Jr. scored, Haniger to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Bouchard hit sacrifice fly to right, Goodman scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Goodman tripled to center, Montero scored and Jones scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −4 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +58 Elo | SF 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–52 | Road vs home | 40–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–7 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.