Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Doyle singled to center, McMahon scored, Rodgers to second.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Bryant homered to left center (420 feet).4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Suzuki homered to right (377 feet), Swanson scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Díaz singled to center, Bryant scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Jones grounded out to first, Doyle scored, Bryant to second.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Bryant singled to first, Rodgers scored and Trejo scored, Doyle to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Crow-Armstrong grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Suzuki scored, Gomes out at second.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Suzuki singled to center, Swanson scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 65%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.2 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −26 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +109 Elo | CHC 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 29–3925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.