Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to left center (377 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Perdomo walked, Gurriel Jr. scored, Zavala to second, Peterson to third.4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 44–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Zavala hit by pitch, Thomas scored, Peterson to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Pham scored, Thomas to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 5Alonso homered to left center (424 feet), McNeil scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Lindor singled to right, Nimmo scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Mauricio homered to right (440 feet), Stewart scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Lindor hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Marte tripled to center, Perdomo scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 35–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–3 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.