New York Mets at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kepler singled to center, Lewis scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Lewis doubled to center, Castro scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Stevenson scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez, Castro stole second.2–3
- 7Stevenson scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez, Castro stole second.2–3
- 4Correa homered to left (439 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Lindor hit a ground rule double, Alonso scored and Alvarez scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Lewis doubled to left, Polanco scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -116
- NYM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −11 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 40–298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.