Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Andrew StevensonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Stevenson singled to left, Castro scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Brennan doubled to right, Giménez scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Brennan singled to left, Giménez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 35–3620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 6–6 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.