Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FryPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to third, Brennan scored, Arias out at second.20–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play20–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 220–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul20–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul20–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 120–6
- 9Bo Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored, Brennan to third.20–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play20–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 120–5
- 9Arias walked, Laureano scored, Brennan to second, Giménez to third.20–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 420–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 320–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 220–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul20–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul20–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 120–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking20–4
- 9Wallner homered to right (408 feet), Solano scored.20–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play20–3
- 7Brennan singled to center, Laureano scored on error, Brennan to second, Giménez to second, Giménez safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Stevenson.18–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play18–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul18–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul18–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul18–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul18–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul18–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul18–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 118–2
- 7Freeman homered to center (393 feet).18–2
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball In Play18–2
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 318–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 218–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 118–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking18–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 47%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −14 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 35–3419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.