Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano tripled to right, Lewis scored, Kepler scored and Correa scored.8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Castro scored on Stephan wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by Stephan, Lewis to third on wild pitch by Stephan.5–3
- 8Castro scored on Stephan wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by Stephan, Lewis to third on wild pitch by Stephan.5–3
- 8Polanco hit sacrifice fly to right, Gallo scored, Castro to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Vázquez homered to right (361 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Straw hit sacrifice fly to right, Arias scored, Bo Naylor to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Bo Naylor homered to right center (389 feet), Brennan scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Correa singled to left, Kepler scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Kepler doubled to right, Lewis scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +23 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +15 Elo | CLE 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 35–3520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.