New York Mets at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castro homered to right center (381 feet).4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8Stewart homered to center (428 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 8Alonso homered to left (427 feet).3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Farmer doubled to right, Kepler scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Kepler tripled to right, Kirilloff scored, Lewis scored and Correa scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Farmer singled to center, Luplow scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Solano singled to left, Jeffers scored and Castro scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Vogelbach singled to center, McNeil scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Nimmo homered to left (363 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- NYM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–43 | Road vs home | 41–298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.