Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte doubled to left, Thomas scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8Pham homered to center (396 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Mauricio doubled to right, Stewart scored on error and Alonso scored, Mauricio safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Pham.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4McNeil homered to right (370 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Rivera hit sacrifice fly to right, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Longoria singled to left, Pham scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Fair odds
- NYM -106
- ARI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +4 | ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +27 Elo | NYM 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 35–3316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–3 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.