New York Mets at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- DJ StewartBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4
- Pablo LopezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stewart doubled to center, McNeil scored and Lindor scored.2–0
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- NYM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +60 Elo | MIN 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–44 | Road vs home | 42–297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.