Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pham grounded into fielder's choice to third, Zavala scored, Marte out at second.1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Alonso grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Baty scored on fielding error by pitcher Saalfrank, Lindor to second, Nimmo to third.0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Vientos homered to left center (403 feet), Ortega scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored and Baty scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Ortega doubled to right, McNeil scored, Ortega to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -103
- ARI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −2 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +7 Elo | ARI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 36–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–4 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.