Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel homered to left (415 feet).4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Suzuki homered to left (419 feet), Bellinger scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 9Happ homered to left center (420 feet).1–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Thomas homered to right center (381 feet), Walker scored and Moreno scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left (413 feet), Marte scored and Walker scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Fair odds
- ARI -105
- CHC +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 3036–34 | Road vs home | 38–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–3 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.