Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting4-5
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7McMahon homered to right center (389 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Bryant homered to right center (397 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Montero homered to left center (398 feet), Bryant scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Jones homered to left center (452 feet), Wynns scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Tovar singled to center, Bryant scored, McMahon to second.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to right, Bellinger scored, Swanson to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Swanson doubled to right, Hoerner scored, Bellinger to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Morel scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.1 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +72 Elo | CHC 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 30–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.