Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Mets- Jonathan ArauzBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Araúz homered to right center (380 feet), Vientos scored and Locastro scored.1–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8McCarthy doubled to right, Carroll scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 7Alvarez doubled to left, Alonso scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5McNeil homered to right (373 feet), Stewart scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Stewart singled to right, Lindor scored and Alonso scored, Stewart to second.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Alonso doubled to left, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Nimmo doubled to right, Vogelbach scored and Vientos scored, Ortega to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +17 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 37–3414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–5 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.