Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-5, 3 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 13Moreno singled to right, Longoria scored, Rivera to second.6–7
- 13Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 13Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 13Rivera reached on infield single to shortstop, Pham scored, Longoria to second.6–6
- 13Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 13Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 13Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 13Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 13Happ grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Gomes scored, Wisdom out at second.6–5
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 11Gurriel Jr. singled to left, McCarthy scored.5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 11Hoerner singled to left, Gomes scored, Happ to second.5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Carroll singled to left, Perdomo scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Hoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Moreno, Morel stole third.4–3
- 10Hoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Moreno, Morel stole third.4–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Walker scored, Thomas to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Bellinger singled to right, Happ scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Morel grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Madrigal scored, Hoerner out at second, Happ to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- CHC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +23 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 39–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–4 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.