San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rivera singled to center, McCarthy scored, Moreno to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Moreno singled to center, Walker scored, McCarthy to third.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Marte homered to right (369 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Carroll homered to right (403 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Thomas doubled to right, Pham scored, Walker to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pham grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll scored, Marte out at second.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Walker reached on infield single to third, Carroll scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Wade Jr. homered to right (369 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -115
- SF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +28 Elo | ARI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 42–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 6–6 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.