San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-3
- Jakob JunisPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bryant singled to center, Blackmon scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Estrada scored, Flores to second.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Tovar scored on Junis wild pitch, Jones to second on wild pitch by Junis.1–4
- 3Tovar scored on Junis wild pitch, Jones to second on wild pitch by Junis.1–4
- 3Tovar singled to left, Blackmon scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Yastrzemski singled to right, Bailey scored, Matos to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Montero singled to left, Bryant scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Bryant doubled to right, Tovar scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -105
- COL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.7 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | SF: Scott Alexander: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +22 Elo | SF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 33–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 8–3 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.