San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4
- Chase AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Montero singled to left, Blackmon scored and Jones scored on throwing error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Montero to second.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 9Flores walked, Davis scored, Bailey to second, Wade Jr. to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 42–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Tovar singled to center, McMahon scored, Tovar to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Bailey grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Conforto scored, Wade Jr. out at second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 61%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- COL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.7 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −26 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +77 Elo | SF 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 31–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 8–1 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.