Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Wade Jr. singled to center, Sabol scored.4–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 10Sabol singled to center, Pederson scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 10Giménez singled to center, Freeman scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Kwan singled to right, Bo Naylor scored, Tena to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Davis grounded out to first, Haniger scored, Pederson to second.2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pederson singled to right, Estrada scored, Haniger to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3J. Naylor homered to right center (422 feet), Ramírez scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right (368 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +23 Elo | SF 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 41–319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.