Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Angels- Randal GrichukBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk singled to center, Paris scored, Drury to second, Schanuel to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Paris singled to right, O'Hoppe scored, Paris to second, Phillips to third.2–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Phillips singled to right, Cabbage scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Laureano grounded out to shortstop, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to second.2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.2 – 5.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Jhonathan Diaz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +20 Elo | LAA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 32–3623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.