Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk homered to right (341 feet), Phillips scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Thaiss homered to right center (376 feet).2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Phillips homered to right (406 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3J. Naylor homered to center (397 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1O'Hoppe homered to center (396 feet), Drury scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Ramírez homered to center (415 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- CLE +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −33 | −17 | CLE: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 33–3723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.