Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8J. Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Bo Naylor scored, Kwan to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6O'Hoppe homered to left center (428 feet), Escobar scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6J. Naylor walked, Brennan scored, Ramírez to second, Bo Naylor to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 44–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Kwan hit sacrifice fly to left, Arias scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Adams hit sacrifice fly to left, Grichuk scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Bo Naylor singled to left, Arias scored, Brennan to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3J. Naylor singled to center, Kwan scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- CLE +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +8 Elo | LAA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 33–3623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.