Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kole CalhounBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Angels- Randal GrichukBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Grichuk grounded out to third, Paris scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Calhoun homered to right center (426 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to right, Grichuk scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Fair odds
- LAA -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.9 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Kenny Rosenberg: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +11 Elo | CLE 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 34–3722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–3 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.