Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Blake SabolBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman singled to center, Fry scored and J. Naylor scored, Freeman to second, Calhoun to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Sabol homered to right center (417 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Calhoun grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kwan scored, Fry out at second, J. Naylor to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Fair odds
- SF -113
- CLE +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −40 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–41 | Road vs home | 42–319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.