Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Bailey scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Davis homered to left (358 feet), Pederson scored and Bailey scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Flores singled to right, Estrada scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Matos singled to right, Slater scored on error, Estrada to second, Matos to second, Estrada safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Laureano.4–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1J. Naylor scored on error and Giménez scored on error, Arias safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Schmitt, Arias safe at second on error.4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Ramírez homered to left center (410 feet), Kwan scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +12 Elo | SF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 42–3210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.