San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Karl KauffmannPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada singled to right, Crawford scored.5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Wade Jr. homered to right center (391 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 7Wynns singled to center, Castro scored and Doyle scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Tovar singled to left, Jones scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Castro walked, Bryant scored, Goodman to second, Montero to third.3–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 43–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Goodman walked, Tovar scored, Montero to second, Bryant to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 43–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Bryant singled to center, Jones scored, Tovar to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -106
- COL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.6 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Brent Suter (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +24 Elo | SF 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 32–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 8–2 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.