San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Brandon CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to right, Rodgers scored and Bouchard scored.11–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–8
- 9Jones scored on error, Bryant safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Doval, Rodgers safe at third on error.11–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 311–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–7
- 9Goodman hit sacrifice fly to center, Montero scored.11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–7
- 7Rodgers singled to left, Tovar scored, Goodman to second.11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–6
- 7Bailey doubled to right, Davis scored and Slater scored.11–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 6Doyle homered to left (445 feet), Rodgers scored and Trejo scored.9–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 6Goodman homered to left center (437 feet), Jones scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 6Estrada singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Crawford homered to right center (402 feet), Wade Jr. scored and Haniger scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Haniger doubled to center, Conforto scored and Davis scored, Wade Jr. to third.5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.5 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | −18 | SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +19 Elo | SF 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 34–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 8–4 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.