San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Thomas scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Flores walked, Crawford scored, Yastrzemski to second, Estrada to third.4–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 44–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Haniger scored, Crawford to third.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Marte singled to left, Perdomo scored and Peterson scored, Marte out stretching at second, Carroll to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 2Carroll scored on fielding error by third baseman Flores and Marte scored on throwing error by third baseman Flores.2–5
- 2Carroll scored on fielding error by third baseman Flores and Marte scored on throwing error by third baseman Flores.2–5
- 2Carroll doubled to left, Moreno scored and Perdomo scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Pham grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carroll scored, Marte out at second.2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pederson homered to center (425 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to left, Wade Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +25 Elo | ARI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 41–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 6–5 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.