Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting4-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (436 feet).1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 7Judge homered to right (383 feet).0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Judge homered to right center (379 feet), Florial scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Florial doubled to left, Peraza scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Judge homered to center (420 feet), Cabrera scored and Peraza scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- ARI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 40–3818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.