Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young singled to right, L. García scored.3–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Sheets grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jiménez scored, Vaughn out at second.3–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–12
- 8Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to second, Thompson scored, Moncada out at second, Jiménez to third.2–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 5Meneses homered to left (410 feet), Thomas scored.1–12
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–12
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 4Alu grounded out to shortstop, L. García scored.1–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 4Smith homered to left center (391 feet).1–9
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 3Thomas homered to left (425 feet), L. García scored, Alu scored and Abrams scored.1–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Abrams doubled to left, Vargas scored and Young scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Vargas singled to center, L. García scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +58 Elo | WSH 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–49 | Road vs home | 31–4427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.